When to Take the Risk: Check the Data and Listen to Your Inner Compass

Mar 6
6 min read

Updated: 3 days ago

The summer we bet everything on a single airplane

There are moments in business when logic and data are not enough.

And there are moments when intuition alone is dangerous.

The art of leadership is knowing when both are aligned.

One of those moments came early in our entrepreneurial journey — and it clearly defined everything that followed.

At the time, we were operating what would later become Hawaiian Vacations. The scheduled air carriers had just pulled out of the Alaska-to-Hawaii market. They decided they were no longer going to fly directly between Anchorage and Honolulu.

Overnight, the landscape changed.

Anyone in Alaska who wanted to go to Hawaii now had to connect through Seattle, San Francisco, or Los Angeles. The trip became longer, more expensive, and more complicated.

And we were left staring at a hard question:

Do we shut the doors?

Without direct flights, our business model was compromised. We had no product to sell. We were rapidly facing great financial pressure. We had payroll but no cash flow. We were forced to make payroll by taking advances on our personal credit cards.

The obvious decision was, do we stay in business, or do we close the doors?

First, we looked for other products to sell. We put together tour packages from Anchorage to Dawson City in the Yukon. We sold some of those, but not enough.

We were on the edge of a financial cliff, and needed to make a decision.

Recognizing the Gap in the Market

When the carriers pulled out, we saw two possible stories.

Story one: The market is gone. Close up.

Story two: The need is still there — but the structure has changed.

We chose the second.

The people of Alaska still wanted to go to Hawaii. In fact, in many ways, they needed it. Winters in Anchorage and Fairbanks are long, cold, and dark. Families look forward to that mental health break — that chance to escape to warmth, sunshine, and a respite from the Alaska winters.

We didn’t just see it as a business opportunity.

We saw it almost as a public service.

But belief and commitment are not enough.

We needed to find a solution. A way to get our customers from Alaska to Hawaii in a fast, economical fashion.

The Charter Proposal

Shortly after we decided to keep going, to find a way, my husband learned of a plane that would be flying summer charters between Anchorage and Japan. This plane would not be fully utilized between the charter flights.

My husband approached the airline and proposed something bold:

Why not let us sell the seats on this plane from Anchorage to Honolulu? The airline could make money, and we could keep our business alive. It was a win-win proposition.

The plane was a DC-8, with 200+ seats.

And here was the risk:

We would have to charter the entire plane and pay a flat amount regardless of the number of seats we sold.

Whether we sold one seat or all of them, we would pay the same amount.

There was a break-even number.

Below it, we lost money.

Above it, we made a profit.

It was clean.

It was simple.

It was terrifying.

Checking the Data Before Jumping

We reviewed our previous summer sales.

Everyone around us was saying, “You’re crazy. Nobody in Alaska goes to Hawaii in the summer. That’s when Alaska is beautiful.”

It sounded logical.

But our numbers told a different story.

We analyzed previous summers and discovered that we had consistently sold enough seats to fill a charter.

Not by accident.

Not by hype.

But by demand.

The data was clear.

The question shifted from “Is there demand?” to “Are we willing to take the risk?”

That distinction matters.

Risk Is Not Reckless When It Is Informed

Looking back, that summer charter was not reckless.

It was calculated.

We had:

Verified demand using real sales history
Identified a clear market gap
Negotiated aircraft availability
Understood our break-even threshold
Built an inventory of accommodations
Structured full vacation packages

We weren’t selling seats.

We were selling a dream vacation, too.

By this time, we had built relationships with condominium owners, larger property managers, and hotels. We packaged vacations that included:

Transpacific airfare
Inter-island flights
Rental cars
Condo or hotel accommodations
Optional activities like luaus or cultural experiences

We made it easy.

Families didn’t have to piece together flights, cars, and lodging.

They called us.

We handled everything.

That integration was our leverage.

Sales Under Pressure

When you pay a flat charter rate, you do not have the luxury of casual marketing.

My husband was always a good salesman.

That summer, he became extraordinary.

We marketed relentlessly.

We communicated the value clearly.

We emphasized convenience.

We leaned into the emotional benefit — the escape, the family time, the opportunity for true R & R.

We weren’t selling a ticket.

We were selling “Paradise.”

And it worked.

Listening to the Inner Compass

Here’s what made that decision powerful.

The data said yes.

But so did our inner compass.

There is something we have learned over decades of entrepreneurship:

When data and intuition align, pay attention.

If the spreadsheets had said no, we would not have moved forward.

If our instincts had felt uneasy, we would have paused.

But both pointed in the same direction.

The need existed.

The numbers supported it.

The opportunity was real.

The structure was viable.

Fear was present.

But fear is not always a stop sign.

Sometimes it is simply a sign that the stakes are meaningful.

What That Risk Created

That first charter was not a one-time shot.

It was for a whole summer of charter flights.

And it worked,

So then it became our new business model. From then on, we continued to find ways to charter more and more large passenger aircraft to fly our passengers between Alaska and Hawaii. We even ran some charters to Japan ourselves.

What seemed to everyone else as a crazy, high-pressure risk became the cornerstone of our business.

From the very beginning of the boot-strap business started by my husband, to the time we sold the business to Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Vacations operated successfully for 25 years. The business grew to carry over 35,000 passengers a year between Alaska and Hawaii, and generated mid-8 digits in annual revenue.

Twenty-five years of growth, of risk, and intentional development of the structure of the business.

Eventually, that structure and growth positioned us for a successful exit with the sale to Alaska Airlines in 2008.

But none of that would have happened without that first decision. The decision to take that first huge risk.

When Should We Take the Risk?

So how do we know when to move?

Here is the framework we use now, shaped by that experience:

Check the Data Do not ignore the numbers. Look at historical performance. Analyze trends. Understand break-even points. Remove emotion long enough to assess reality.
Define the Downside Clearly What is the worst-case scenario? Can we survive it? Are we willing to carry it?
Identify the Gap Are we solving a real need? Or are we chasing an ego-driven opportunity?
Align Incentives Is the structure fair? Are responsibilities clear? Is the reward proportional to the risk?
Listen to the Inner Compass After logic and structure are assessed, what does instinct say? Is there clarity or hesitation?

When both logic and instinct align — that is often the moment to move.

Redefining Risk

We often think of risk as something to avoid.

But in reality, not taking strategic risks can be more dangerous.

If we had closed the doors that year, Hawaiian Vacations would have ended.

If we had waited for perfect conditions, the opportunity would have passed.

Risk is not the opposite of prudence.

Recklessness is.

Informed courage is different.

Expert Spotlight

Maiko Sakai

Founder, Airtight Concepts

Maiko works with creative entrepreneurs to build a simple and profitable business model — one that aligns with their mission and values instead of trapping them in endless, thankless work.

Her approach replaces frantic short-term fixes with a clean, fail-safe system that can be used again and again. Instead of chasing marketing tactics and trends, Maiko helps recalibrate the core business model first — so everything else finally works.

Her proprietary framework, BBLTC (“Big BLT with Cheese”), is woven into every transformation system she delivers.

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